Outputs

Lyon, C. et al. (2026) 'Life on New Earth: biodiversity change and humanity in a novel future', Philosophical Transactions B, 381(1942), 20240426. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2024.0426

This paper explores how changes in the biosphere can impact societies, in ways that are not always negative. It highlights that biosphere changes are uneven, with regions experiencing gains amid losses. The gains are underexplored, given the emphasis on loss and less emphasis on technology. Building resilience in the UK food system to biosphere changes means examining the full scope of losses, gains and technological changes, to ensure that national security assessments and resulting policy changes make the most of the available science.

'Planetary Solvency: Tipping into the wild unknown' (PDF), Prof Aled Jones and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), April 2026.

This report warns that biodiversity loss, climate shocks and geopolitical conflict are disrupting the food system, risking catastrophic impacts for the financial system and for society as a whole. It advises that urgent intervention is needed and highlights actions for policymakers, regulators, and those working in the financial sector to integrate nature into decision making in order to safeguard the food system.

It explains that chronic pressures such as soil degradation and water scarcity are already leading to lower crop yields, pushing up food prices and reducing availability. Acute shocks including trade disruption, extreme weather events and ecological collapse add further stresses, resulting in higher and more volatile food prices.

The report warns that urgent intervention is needed and highlights actions for policymakers, regulators and those working in the financial sector, to integrate nature into decision making in order to safeguard the food system. For further summary, see the accompanying Planetary Solvency: Tipping into the wild unknown (IFoA press release).